Real estate professionals across Northern Virginia are hopeful that mortgage rates will moderate, but the economy is still uncertain and that could affect regional home sales in 2024.
"The economy is still creating jobs, but the signs of a downturn are building," according to a 2024 outlook report by the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors. The signs of a downturn include the rise in consumer debt, an increase in layoffs and continued effects of inflation.
"On the heels of the new inflation numbers and a job market that remains resilient, there are an increasing number of market analysts pulling the word “recession” out of their 2024 forecasts. We are not convinced, yet. The rise in interest rates and overall tightening of monetary policy for the past 18+ months are only now being seen in economic performance," according to the report.
What does this mean for Northern Virginia's housing market?
There remains a lot of uncertainty in the real estate market, and overall sales activity remains low. However, there are "hopeful signs" for 2024, including more housing coming that is geared toward young professionals, continued demand for housing in this region and a widening ring of desirability due to telework.
In Alexandria specifically, the number of homes for sale is expected to remain low compared to previous years, even in the spring — and particularly for single-family homes and townhomes. Prices for single-family homes will be higher than pre-pandemic prices, but will not be much higher than summer of 2023 prices.
The inventory in Fairfax County may see similar trends — fewer residences for sale overall. However, prices for single family homes will increase more than in the City of Alexandria.
If you're considering buying a home, it will still be important to shop around for the best mortgage rates and talk to a Realtor about strategies to lower your monthly payment.
Each year, the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® (NVAR), in conjunction with the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University (GMU-CRA), issues a consensus forecast for the NVAR region’s housing market.
