Snowfall the past several years has been below average in the Washington, D.C. metro area (including no snow last year), and this year may look the same, despite the presence of El Niño.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and several non-governmental organizations have released predictions for this winter. What to expect this winter depends on who you believe.
According to NOAA, it is likely that temperatures in Northern Virginia will be higher than average this winter, and there will be more precipitation than average, too. Chances are good that the combination will translate to rain, not snow, from December through February.
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NOAA
Temperature predictions from December 2023 - February 2024.
NOAA
Precipitation predictions from December 2023 - February 2024.
However, other sources are calling for something different.
"El Niño is associated with above-average snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic, but that is largely because it can produce feast-or-famine winters with one or two major snowstorms along the Acela corridor from Washington to New York," according to a Washington Post analysis. So, we may see a lot of snow, or none at all.
The Old Farmers' Almanac is expecting a cold and snowy winter across Virginia. "Along with above-normal snow, we’ll see normal to colder-than-normal temperatures in areas that typically receive snow," according to the Almanac's website.
Washington, D.C. had a series of snowy winters from 2013 through 2016. The last winter with significant snowfall was 2020-2021, and that was still slightly below average. Last year, the metro area got just a few traces of snow with no real accumulation.
