Chris Militzer/Miliman12 Photography
Last winter, Alexandria had just one day with enough snow to cancel school — and it was in March.
What will this winter bring?
This winter, several forecasters are predicting 20 to 30 inches of snow. "The primary rationale for the snowy outlook is that an El Niño event is expected to develop, and, on average, more snow falls during El Niño in Washington than during its opposite phase, La Niña," according to the Capital Weather Gang, which surveyed a number of private meteorologists.
Earlier this season, several forecasts predicted a slightly milder-than-normal winter this year because of a predicted weak El Niño — but those experts left room for the possibility that Alexandria could see some real snowstorms in the latter half of the winter.
The most likely time for significant snow accumulations in the DC metro area is Jan. 20 through Feb. 15, according to historic records. The area averages approximately 15 inches of snow per winter.
Last year, Alexandria saw fewer than 8 inches of snow. The prior winter (2016 – 2017) brought less than 3.5 inches of snow.
Surveying the Predictions
The Old Farmer’s Almanac is predicting a warm and wet winter for the DC region. “Our milder-than-normal forecast is due to the expected arrival of a weak El Niño, which will prevent cold air masses from lingering in the North,” according to the Almanac.
AccuWeather predicts a milder-than-normal early winter before cold air takes hold in January and February. “In the mid-Atlantic states, a few big snowstorms are likely,” AccuWeather reports.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts this winter will be warmer than usual, with a 70 percent chance of an El Niño winter. "Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are still likely to occur," according to NOAA.
Alternative Models and Predictions
And then there are the seeds, wooly bear caterpillars and other indicators…
People have a wide variety of ways of predicting whether a winter will be snowy, windy, cold or all three.
"Persimmon seeds are forecasting above-average snowfall in the Washington region once again this winter. It’s the fourth time in five years that the seeds have called for an above-average-snowfall winter in the D.C. area,” the Washington Post, for example, reported. However, the seed forecast over the past five years has been just 25 percent accurate — less accurate than flipping a coin.
Others have said the number of foggy mornings or cloudy days we get in August equate to the number of snowy days in winter. For the record, Washington, DC has an average of 11 foggy days in August and an average of 12 cloudy days. This past August, the DC metro area had 11 days with measurable precipitation.
Wooly bear caterpillars (also called wooly worms) are also used in forecasting by some people. Black worms predict a harsh winter, and brown worms predict a mild winter. Local children report seeing more black worms this summer.
