Coronavirus infections are continuing to increase in Alexandria and Fairfax County — and with the rapid spread of COVID-19, some people on social media are suggesting that we’ll soon reach a natural state of “herd immunity.”
But those statements are misguided at best, and health officials say that relaxing safety measures to get to herd immunity is dangerous.
Both Alexandria and Fairfax County have hit record caseloads this week, reporting more cases than at any time since this pandemic started. The increase in cases has been spurred by indoor gatherings (such as Thanksgiving), pandemic fatigue and spending more time indoors due to the colder weather.
Statewide, the 7-day average for confirmed cases of this coronavirus are now above 3,000 cases per day — significantly higher than the earlier peaks in May and August.
When Do We Reach Herd Immunity?
Herd immunity occurs when so many people have gotten an illness that it mostly no longer presents a health threat. But the World Health Organization (WHO) explains, “Herd immunity is achieved by protecting people from a virus, not by exposing them to it.”
“Rushing toward herd immunity by ignoring risky behavior in the hope that infected people will survive, become resistant and reduce the susceptible population is an approach that will increase deaths and disability, and should be avoided,” according to Dr. Stuart Ray, professor of medicine at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine.
Here in Alexandria, Mayor Justin Wilson railed against those who are promoting relaxing safety measures in a Facebook post Monday, explaining what it would take for Alexandria to even start approaching herd immunity.
The conclusion: More than 14x the number of deaths we have now, overwhelmed hospitals and a badly hurt economy. Fairfax County would have similar devastation.
Health experts estimate that herd immunity would not start until 70 percent of the population was immune to the virus.
…
Wilson wrote on Monday:
Back in the summer, the Governor of Mississippi did a fantastic takedown on social media of the "herd immunity" plan for addressing the COVID-19 pandemic. For some reason, this “herd immunity” crap has resurfaced on social media again.
Let me shamelessly copy Governor Reeves and run the numbers for Alexandria to help demonstrate the folly of this approach:
Let's begin by assuming that we need a 50% infection rate for herd immunity (that's probably quite a bit low).
Our population in the City is 159,000. We have had 5,790 cases in the City so far. We would need another 73,710 cases to meet this 50% "herd immunity" threshold.
Today, we reported 121 new COVID positive tests, by far our highest single-day total to date.
If we reported FOUR TIMES (484) that many cases tomorrow, we would need to replicate that total daily for over 21 WEEKS until we would reach that 50% threshold!
If we apply the current US death rate of 1.9% to that case total, we will lose another 1,400 Alexandrians during that time, on top of the 82 that we have sadly lost already. That would be more than 9 people dying PER DAY from now until mid-May.
So far 6.6% of Alexandria's COVID cases have required hospitalizations. If we end up at a level of 484 daily cases, that will mean 31 new hospitalizations DAILY. Inova Alexandria Hospital has a capacity of roughly 313 beds. New hospitalizations at that level would overwhelm the hospital in a few days.
Summary: The vaccine is almost here. Wear your damn mask, support our small businesses and let's get through this together.”
