Update 4:45 a.m. Tuesday, April 28:
Gov. Ralph Northam has released a plan for reopening businesses and returning to a more "normal" pace of life — but it requires meeting certain benchmarks around testing, virus transmission rates and more.
Weeks ago, the 'peak' for the coronavirus and the COVID-19 illness was projected for the end of April or early May in Virginia, but it is unclear whether that peak has happened.
Several pockets of the state (including parts of Northern Virginia) are seeing moderation — and even slight declines — in virus transmission rates, but some areas, such as Richmond, are becoming the state's new "hot spots."
As of Monday, there were more than 13,500 coronavirus cases in Virginia, including more than 600 in the City of Alexandria and more than 3,000 in Fairfax County.
The New York Times has been tracking cases nationwide and is updating this information on Virginia multiple times per day:
The New York Times
The Virginia Dept. of Health's data shows that statewide, the average number of new cases per week is still very much on the upswing.
This list shows the average number of new cases per day in each week since late March, based on Virginia Dept. of Health Data:
- March 22 - 28: 83 new cases per day on average
- March 29 - April 4: 238
- April 5 - 11: 381
- April 12 - 18: 425
- April 19 - 25: 616
Virginia Dept. of Health
Virginia's Plan to Reopen
Gov. Northam's "Forward Virginia Blueprint," released last week, provides an outline of requirements for slowly reopening businesses and travel in Virginia. The requirements are based on public health data.
"The Governor emphasized that key indicators will include a 14-day downward trend in confirmed cases as a percentage of overall tests and in reduced COVID-19 hospitalizations. While hospitalization rates have largely stabilized in the Commonwealth, confirmed cases continue to rise," according to a state government release.
Virginia is coordinating with Maryland and the District of Columbia on ordering additional personal protective equipment (PPEs) for medical staff, and all three areas are hiring many more 'contact tracers' to ensure residents are informed and aware when they may have been exposed.
At this point, the earliest that Virginia could start the first phase of its reopening plan is at least 14 days away.
Gov. Northam has, however, indicated some support for reopening the state regionally based on localized data. That gives some hope that Alexandria and Fairfax County may reopen sooner than parts of the state where transmissions are increasing much more rapidly.
Gov. Northam has concerns, along with other officials, that reopening too soon could lead to a new wave of cases. Several other states in the South, including Tennessee, Georgia and Florida, are reopening businesses and beaches now.
Virginia residents remain under a stay-at-home order through June 10.
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Update 11:30 a.m. Wednesday, April 8:
The peak may still be a few weeks off for Virginia's novel coronavirus outbreak and COVID-19 illnesses, but new data is available today to help residents track occurrences.
This week, the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association launched a COVID-19 in Virginia data dashboard with updates on hospitalizations, case severity and hospital capacity, along with other relevant information track the spread of the coronavirus and the COVID-19 illness in Virginia.
According to the Virginia Dept. of Health, as of 10 a.m. Wednesday, April 8, there were 3,645 coronavirus cases statewide, including 143 in the City of Alexandria and 570 in Fairfax County.
Virginia Hospital & Healthcare Association (VHHA)
Virginia Hospital & Healthcare Association (VHHA)
In addition, this week, Virginia Health Commissioner Dr. Norman Oliver said that because of issues with limited testing and the sometimes days-long turnaround time on tests results, the daily case numbers reported by the Virginia Department of Health are lower than reality. That is also why the City of Alexadria and Fairfax County daily information updates often have higher numbers than the Virginia Dept. of Health.
The number of coronavirus cases in Alexandria is now more than 140, according to both the Alexandria Health Dept. and the Virginia Dept. of Health.
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Update 8:35 p.m. Monday, April 6:
The City of Alexandria on Monday evening reported the first death of a resident due to the novel coronavirus illness COVID-19.
“My colleagues and I are saddened by the first confirmed death of an Alexandria resident due to COVID-19, and our thoughts are with their loved ones,” said AHD Director Dr. Stephen A. Haering in a statement. “The best way to honor our neighbor is to recommit ourselves to the most effective ways to stop this virus: stay at home as much as possible, wash hands frequently, and maintain six feet of personal space whenever you can. Everyone has a role in reducing the impacts of this pandemic. We must all be vigilant to protect ourselves and especially our most vulnerable community members.”
City health officials had already contacted those who had close contact with the patient. The City will not be releasing more information on the patient to protect the family's privacy.
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Original story posted 9 a.m. Monday, April 6:
The number of positive cases of COVID-19 jumped over 100 this weekend in Alexandria. Fairfax County has more than 425 and Arlington County is at nearly 200 cases.
Still, local hospitals say they’re ready for an influx of patients with respiratory problems caused by the coronavirus.
The Inova hospital system said that its five hospitals are ready for patients and expects it will have enough beds and respirators for patients. In addition, the hospital system has added more negative pressure rooms designed to prevent the spread of airborne particles.
However, “supply chain” issues are a significant concern. Like other states, Virginia does not have enough testing equipment, for example.
When will coronavirus peak in Northern Virginia?
When the peak occurs is up for debate. There are two common models used to estimate peak coronavirus cases — the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model and the COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics, or CHIME, developed by Penn Medicine.
In Virginia, IHME says the peak will be around April 20 and there may be an ICU bed shortage in the state of more than 200 beds. The same model says the peak in the District of Columbia was three days ago, on April 3, but cases in the District of Columbia are continuing to increase, indicating that the peak may be still to come.
The IHME model is the one the federal government is mostly relying on for its projections.
The CHIME model puts peak dates much later. For our region, that peak is projected to be at the end of June.
The Dulles Expo Center has been designated the ‘alternate site’ for hospitals in Northern Virginia and will be able to serve 300 to 500 patients, Gov. Ralph Northam announced Friday. Construction could take up to six weeks.
How to Help Inova Hospitals
The Inova Hospital Foundation is asking for financial donations to help treat patients. In addition, the hospital system is accepting donations of unused, new masks (not homemade), goggles, hand sanitizer, face shields, paper disposable gowns, gloves and bleach or bleach wipes.
Only restaurants and catering companies may donate food. Other items must be individually packaged and labeled – i.e., only “grab and go” meals. Inova asks that you make an appointment before dropping off any supplies or gifts for staff. Learn more here.
Masks
On Friday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) started to recommend that people wear face coverings when they are out and about.
According to the Alexandria Health Department, “While purchased or homemade face coverings will not prevent individuals from catching the COVID-19 virus, wearing them will help prevent people who have the virus and do not know it from transmitting it to others. It is important to recognize that a face covering is not a surgical mask or N95 respirator. The general public is urged not to use these items, since these are crucial limited supplies needed for healthcare workers and first responders. The Alexandria Health Department has produced a short video showing how to make and use a cloth face covering correctly.”
The CDC also has a no-sew option for facemasks here.
Thursday evening (April 9) beginning at 8 p.m., Mayor Justin Wilson will be hosting another virtual Living Room Town Hall Meeting through Facebook. You do not need a Facebook account to watch. Tune in here Thursday at 8 p.m.
