The number of COVID-19 cases in Virginia seems to be trending in the wrong direction.
Statewide, cases had been on a steady decline from the peak in May through late June, when the state entered the second phase of Gov. Ralph Northam’s coronavirus business reopening plan called Forward Virginia.
Unfortunately, since late June, Virginia seems to be sliding backward in its fight against COVID-19.
The seven-day moving average of cases hit a peak on May 21 with 1,076 cases of COVID-19 confirmed that day and a seven-day average of 1,028 cases. Case confirmations declined until the seven-day average reached a low point on June 17 with 447 cases.
Starting June 17, cases statewide started to tick upward, reaching a seven-day average of 565 on June 29. Many of the cases seem to be in the Hampton Roads area — Alexandria and Fairfax County do not seem to be experiencing a significant increase in COVID-19 cases.
Around July 1, it appears that positive tests for COVID-19 start to go down again, but the delay in testing results means that many residents tested from July 1 through today do not have results yet.
Virginia Dept. of Health - July 10, 2020
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Virginia is not alone — more than 40 states are experiencing a resurgence in coronavirus cases. Nationwide, cases have set record numbers on several days in July. Florida hit a new record for daily positive test results on Sunday.
In the Northern Virginia region, cases decreased significantly through June 19 before starting to tick upward again slightly (see chart below). Similar to the rest of the state, recent tests may not be reflected on the graph below from the Virginia Dept. of Health.
In the coming weeks, Northern Virginia could see a trajectory similar to the rest of Virginia if people get lax about wearing masks and maintaining social distancing.
Northern Virginia’s seven-day trailing average of cases was around 165 per day at the end of June, a decrease from an average of 562 on May 20.
Virginia Dept. of Health — July 10, 2020
Currently in Virginia, including in Northern Virginia, there is enough hospital capacity for coronavirus patients and hospitals are not reporting any shortage of protective equipment.
Still, Northam is strongly encouraging residents to continue teleworking if they are able, wash hands frequently for at least 20 seconds with clean water, and maintain physical distance when outside the home. Virginia residents should wear a mask when they are inside a public place, including restaurants (when not eating), retail establishments, office buildings and entertainment venues.
"We will continue watching the data over the coming days to make sure public health guidelines are being followed—and I won't hesitate to impose restrictions if needed," Northam posted on Twitter Friday.
