Image courtesy of NOAA
Hurricane image from NOAA
There is a 54% storm chance and 24% hurricane chance in Virginia this year, according to a forecast released by Colorado State University.
Here's a look at their predictions, by the numbers, for the 2025 hurricane season:
- Named storms: 17 (average is 14.4)
- Hurricanes: 9 (average is 7.2)
- Major hurricanes: 4 (average is 3.2)
Accuweather's hurricane forecast calls for 13-18 named storms, of which they say 7-10 will be hurricanes. NOAA will release their forecast in May.
The names for 2025 hurricanes, released by NOAA, are:
- Andrea
- Barry
- Chantal
- Dexter
- Erin
- Fernand
- Gabrielle
- Humberto
- Imelda
- Jerry
- Karen
- Lorenzo
- Melissa
- Nestor
- Olga
- Pablo
- Rebekah
- Sebastien
- Tanya
- Van
- Wendy
For Atlantic hurricanes, there is a list of names for each of six years. In other words, one list is repeated every sixth year. The only time that there is a change is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for obvious reasons of sensitivity. If that occurs, then at an annual meeting by the committee (called primarily to discuss many other issues) the offending name is stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it.
From 2024, Hurricanes Beryl, Helene and Milton were retired.
Here's a summary of the Colorado State University forecast:
We anticipate that the 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity. Current La Niña conditions are likely to transition to ENSO neutral conditions in the next couple of months; however, there remains considerable uncertainty as to what the phase of ENSO will be this summer and fall.
Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are generally warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral (or potential La Niña) conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.
We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.
