What's the Alexandria City housing market forecast? The following are some key points from a recent report from the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors:
For Alexandria, the average month-over-year sales price is forecast to increase an average of 2.0% to 2.9% on a month-over-year basis from 2024 to 2025.
Sales for single-family detached homes and townhomes are forecast to increase 3.1% and 5.6% on average from 2024 to 2025, while condo sales are forecast to decline on average 9.6% month-over-year over the entire year.
iStock Photo
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For Sale Real Estate Sign in Front of New House.
While inventory for single-family detached is forecast to grow an average of 38.4% month-over-year, townhome inventory is forecast to increase by 81.8%, while condo is forecast to increase an average of 73.5%.
Overall, while sales and prices are forecast to have modest increases, inventory is forecast to build to pre-pandemic levels, putting downward pressure on price increases.
More insights from the report show:
With the job market starting to reflect the policies of the new federal administration, the region’s housing market is approaching a transition period. Federal employment has declined by roughly 20,000 since December 2024, and job declines in the Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services subsector that began in early 2024 have accelerated due to spending cuts initiated by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). In short, the two sectors that the DC metro region has historically relied on to underpin the housing market have been declining.
Despite these substantial declines, however, total non-farm payrolls have continued to increase, led in no small part by a boom in construction jobs in Northern Virginia. Thus, while there are mixed signs about the region’s near-term economic prospects, there are signs of economic resilience that include the potential to see economic growth in emerging technology sectors and a housing market that remains solid. Still, the impacts of federal job cuts, the potential for agency relocation, and reduced federal contract spending in some sectors are driving uncertainty for businesses and residents of the region.
Mortgage interest rates continue to challenge first time buyers; however, market participants appear to be acclimating to rates that look more like long run averages than the once-in-a-generation bargains seen during the COVID years. Market forecasters expect the Federal Reserve to lower benchmark rates by 50 basis points by year end. This means that mortgage rates may ease somewhat, but the forecast team expects 30-year fixed mortgage rates to remain in the mid-6% range.
While uncertainty is the overarching theme of the region’s economy, the housing market looks set to become more balanced in supply and demand metrics, which is healthy compared to the past few years. Overall, the forecast for the Greater NVAR region calls for:
- Modest sales price increases, generally between 2% to 2.5% month-over-year through the end of the year — more in line with overall inflation; and,
- Stable or modestly increasing unit sales, particularly for detached single family properties in desirable neighborhoods; while,
- Inventories will continue to rise through the end of the year for most regional markets and home types.
While some inventory increases are forecast to be more than 70% month-over-year through the end of the year, the percent change represents relatively few homes and often reflect a return to market-normal conditions for Northern Virginia after periods of historically tight inventory.
Given that Northern Virginia continues to be a desirable place to live, and there remains a lot of pent-up demand for for-sale housing, prices will continue to rise even as inventories increase. For some households not directly impacted by federal government uncertainties, this may be the best opportunity to purchase a home since before the pandemic. There is likely to be plenty of market activity for Northern Virginia Realtors® members.
Here are more statistics from the report, specific to Alexandria:
Prices – Detached
- Housing Prices (Dec 2025): $1,083,756
- Median Price in Peak Month: Mar, $1,293,528
- Avg. Month-over-Year Change (2024-2025): +2.9%
Unit Sales – Detached
- Unit Sales (2025 annual): 305
- Number of Sales in Peak Month: June, 39 units
- Avg. Month-over-Year Change (2024-2025): +3.1 %
Inventory – Detached
- Units on Market 2025 Avg (Month End): 41
- Inventory in Peak Month: May, 47 units
- Avg. Month-over-Year Change (2024-2025): +38.4%
Prices – Townhomes
- Housing Prices (Dec 2025): $842,499
- Median Price in Peak Month: Jan, $934,500
- Avg. Month-over-Year Change (2024-2025): +2.0%
Unit Sales – Townhomes
- Unit Sales (2025 annual): 619
- Number of Sales in Peak Month: May & Jun, 67 units - Avg. Month-over-Year Change (2024-2025): +5.6%
Inventory – Townhomes
- Units on Market 2025 Avg (Month End): 77
- Inventory in Peak Month: Sep, 102 units
- Avg. Month-over-Year Change (2024-2025): +81.8%
Prices – Condos
-Housing Prices (Dec 2025): $371,647
-Median Price in Peak Month: Feb, $445,000
- Avg. Month-over-Year Change (2024-2025): +2.8%
Unit Sales – Condos
- Unit Sales (2025 annual): 908
- Number of Sales in Peak Month: Jun, 92 units
- Avg. Month-over-Year Change (2024-2025): -9.6%
Inventory – Condo
- Units on Market 2025 Avg (Month End): 189
- Inventory in Peak Month: Sep, 232 units
- Avg. Month-over-Year Change (2024-2025): +73.5%
